The financial markets are the most competitive place on the planet. Trillions of dollars are exchanged daily. You are competing against some of the smartest people in the world, that have teams of 50+ PhDs, each with decades of experience more than you, with far better technology, algorithms, trading bots, and significantly more capital. The average hedge fund has 5000 times the amount of money the Median American’s net worth is at their disposal. And that is just the average. The big guys have 50,000 more. To say the odds are stacked against you is an understatement.
Only 1% succeed. And of those that do, it typically takes years. If you start, plan for it to take far longer than you expect.
There are many reasons for the 1% success rate. One is that the barrier to entry is so low.
It is like a person who’s never played piano taking a few lessons and saying “OK, I am ready to play my solo for the New York Philharmonic”
Or a person walking into a bookstore, buying a book on brain surgery, reading it in a weekend, and then showing up a hospital on Monday announcing to the operating room, “I am ready for my first operation”. They’d call the cops on you.
Trading is hard. It wouldn’t pay well if it wasn’t. “But how hard is it really?”
It is very hard. People severely underestimate just how hard. People are not prepared just how uncomfortable it is to be constantly proven wrong, lose money, go against your human nature on a daily basis. It is a battle that never ends. It took me over 8 years and counting from the moment I took my first trade to actually find some success.
My proposition instead is that you find something you are talented that you can monetize enough to provide a living for yourself. There are many paths to have a fulfilling life, and for most I do not recommend trading. For those crazy enough, fortunate enough, brave enough, smart enough, hard working enough to give trading a shot? Godspeed. Connect with me over email so I can provide some unsolicited advice that will hopefully take a lot of time of your learning curve and more importantly, protect your money.
The most important piece of risk-management advice: Only bet what you can afford to lose. If you start, start very small. You have no idea what you’re doing, and it is critical you proceed with caution. Go slow, and go smart. But if you decide to go, go patiently, believe in yourself, and never give up.
Thanks for reading.
-Peter
Peter Macke 
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